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How can we calculate allele and genotype frequencies in a population and decide whether they are changing?

A population is a group of organisms of the same species occupying a particular space at a particular time that can potentially interbreed. The individuals in a population of a species may show a wide range of variation in phenotype. This is the result of genetic and environmental factors. A gene pool is all the alleles of all the genes in a population. The frequency of an allele in a population is the proportion of organisms carrying that allele. The Hardy-Weinberg principle provides a mathematical model, which predicts that allele frequencies will not change from one generation to the next, given that no mutation, migration, selection or genetic drift occurs and that there is random mating in a large population. Since allele frequencies do change, the conditions required to maintain a Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium are rarely met. Students should be able to use the Hardy-Weinberg principle (p + q = 1 and p2 + 2pq + q2 = 1) to calculate allele, genotype and phenotype frequencies in populations and changes in these frequencies.

A focused answer to the AQA 3.7 dot point on populations and Hardy-Weinberg. Defines populations, gene pools and allele frequency, states the five conditions for equilibrium, and works through allele, genotype and phenotype frequency calculations with the p + q = 1 and p2 + 2pq + q2 = 1 equations.

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  1. What this dot point is asking
  2. The Hardy-Weinberg principle
  3. Conditions for equilibrium
  4. Working out allele frequencies
  5. Detecting changes in frequency
  6. Try this

What this dot point is asking

AQA wants you to define a population, gene pool and allele frequency, state the conditions for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and use the two Hardy-Weinberg equations to calculate allele, genotype and phenotype frequencies (and changes in them) from data.

Phenotypic variation within a population results from both genetic factors (different alleles, meiosis, random fertilisation, mutation) and environmental factors (diet, climate, lifestyle), which usually act together.

The Hardy-Weinberg principle

The Hardy-Weinberg principle is a mathematical model predicting that allele frequencies stay constant from generation to generation, provided a set of conditions holds. It gives a baseline: if real allele frequencies do change, one of the conditions has been broken, which signals evolution.

Conditions for equilibrium

Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium holds only when all five conditions are met:

  1. No mutation (no new alleles are introduced).
  2. No migration (no immigration or emigration changing the gene pool).
  3. No natural selection (all genotypes are equally fertile and viable).
  4. No genetic drift (the population is very large, so chance has negligible effect).
  5. Random mating (mating is not influenced by genotype).

Because these conditions are rarely all met in real populations, true equilibrium is uncommon, and observed frequency change is evidence of evolutionary processes at work.

Working out allele frequencies

The recessive phenotype is the only one whose genotype is certain from the phenotype: it must be homozygous recessive, frequency q2q^2. So always start by finding q2q^2 from the recessive phenotype, take its square root to find qq, then use p=1qp = 1 - q.

Detecting changes in frequency

To show a population is evolving, compare allele frequencies over time. If qq rises or falls between generations, equilibrium has been broken, usually by selection (for example, an antibiotic-resistance allele rising under antibiotic use) or by genetic drift in a small population.

Try this

Q1. State the five conditions that must be met for a population to be in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. [3 marks]

  • Cue. No mutation, no migration, no natural selection, no genetic drift (large population), and random mating.

Q2. A recessive allele causes a condition affecting 1 in 10 000 people. Calculate (a) the frequency of the recessive allele and (b) the percentage of the population that are carriers. [3 marks]

  • Cue. (a) q2=0.0001q^2 = 0.0001, so q=0.01q = 0.01. (b) p=0.99p = 0.99; carriers 2pq=2×0.99×0.01=0.0198=1.982pq = 2 \times 0.99 \times 0.01 = 0.0198 = 1.98 percent.

Q3. A biologist samples a population in two successive generations and finds the recessive allele frequency rises from 0.2 to 0.35. Explain what this shows and name one process that could cause it. [3 marks]

  • Cue. Allele frequency has changed, so the population is not in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and is evolving; natural selection favouring the recessive allele (or genetic drift, or migration) could cause it.

Exam-style practice questions

Practice questions written in the style of AQA exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.

2021 AQA3 marksCystic fibrosis is caused by a recessive allele. In a population, 1 in 2500 babies is born with cystic fibrosis. Use the Hardy-Weinberg principle to calculate the percentage of the population that are carriers (heterozygous).
Show worked answer →

A full-mark answer finds q, then p, then 2pq.

Find q
The affected (homozygous recessive) frequency is q2=1/2500=0.0004q^2 = 1/2500 = 0.0004. So q=0.0004=0.02q = \sqrt{0.0004} = 0.02.
Find p
p=1q=10.02=0.98p = 1 - q = 1 - 0.02 = 0.98.
Find carrier frequency
Carriers are heterozygotes, frequency 2pq=2×0.98×0.02=0.03922pq = 2 \times 0.98 \times 0.02 = 0.0392.
Answer
0.0392 = 3.92 percent of the population are carriers.

Markers reward taking the square root of q2q^2 to find q, calculating p, and using 2pq for the heterozygotes.

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