The five stages of the demographic transition model, the birth, death and population trends in each, and its uses and limitations (AO1, AO2).

What this dot point is asking

CCEA wants you to know the demographic transition model (DTM), a graph that shows how a country's birth rate, death rate and total population change as it develops through five stages. You must describe the trends in each stage, link them to development, give example countries, and evaluate the model's strengths and limitations. The DTM ties together birth and death rates from the previous dot point and explains the shape of the population pyramids in the next one.

What the model shows

The five stages

Learn each stage as a short story of what happens to the three measures.

• Stage 1 - High fluctuating. Birth rate high, death rate high and fluctuating (disease, famine, war). Population low and stable. Few places today, perhaps remote tribes.
• Stage 2 - Early expanding. Death rate falls rapidly (medicine, clean water, sanitation, food); birth rate stays high. Population grows rapidly. Example: some of the world's least developed countries.
• Stage 3 - Late expanding. Birth rate falls (contraception, women working and educated, lower infant mortality, children costly); death rate low. Population still grows but more slowly. Example: rapidly developing countries.
• Stage 4 - Low fluctuating. Birth rate low, death rate low. Population high and stable. Example: many richer countries such as the UK.
• Stage 5 - Declining. Birth rate falls below the death rate. Population slowly falls and ages. Example: Japan, Germany, Italy.

Why the rates change

The key AO2 skill is explaining the cause of each change.

• The death rate falls first, in Stage 2, because of better healthcare, vaccination, clean water, sanitation and food supply.
• The birth rate falls later, in Stage 3, because of contraception, the education and employment of women, falling infant mortality (so fewer children are needed), and the rising cost of raising children.
• This lag between falling death rates and falling birth rates is what causes the rapid population growth of Stage 2.

Strengths and limitations

Worked example: reading a country's stage

Common mistakes

Examples in context

Example 1. Japan in Stage 5. Japan now has a birth rate below its death rate, so its population is slowly shrinking and ageing, with a growing share of elderly people and a shrinking workforce. This is exactly what Stage 5 predicts, and it brings real challenges such as rising pension and healthcare costs, showing how the model links to genuine problems countries face.

Example 2. Why the model misses migration. A country in Stage 4 with low birth and death rates might still see its population grow quickly if many migrants arrive, or shrink if many leave, neither of which the DTM shows. This is why a strong evaluation points to migration as a major limitation: the real population of a country is shaped by movement as well as births and deaths.

Try this

Q1. In which stage does the death rate fall rapidly while the birth rate stays high? [1 mark]

• Cue. Stage 2 (early expanding).

Q2. Why does the birth rate fall in Stage 3? [2 marks]

• Cue. Contraception, women educated and working, lower infant mortality, and the rising cost of children.

Q3. Give one limitation of the demographic transition model. [1 mark]

• Cue. It ignores migration (also: based on Europe, no timescale, Stage 5 added later).