What does the balance of payments record, and why does a persistent current-account deficit matter?
The balance of payments and the current account: the structure of the balance of payments, the components of the current account, the causes and consequences of a current-account deficit or surplus, and the link to other objectives.
An Eduqas A520 answer to the balance of payments, covering its structure (current, capital and financial accounts), the four components of the current account, the causes and consequences of a current-account deficit or surplus, and how external balance interacts with growth, the exchange rate and other macroeconomic objectives.
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What this dot point is asking
Eduqas wants you to set out the structure of the balance of payments, identify the components of the current account, explain the causes and consequences of a current-account deficit or surplus, and link external balance to the other macroeconomic objectives. A satisfactory balance of payments (especially on the current account) is one of the four core objectives.
The structure of the balance of payments
The components of the current account
Causes and consequences of a deficit or surplus
Causes of a deficit include poor price and non-price competitiveness (high relative inflation or costs, low quality), a strong exchange rate (making exports dear and imports cheap), strong domestic demand sucking in imports, and a structural decline in exporting industries. Consequences of a large, persistent deficit can include reliance on capital inflows to finance it, rising external debt, downward pressure on the exchange rate, and a possible loss of confidence; however, a deficit driven by importing capital goods for investment, or easily financed by inflows into an attractive economy, may be benign. A surplus can signal competitiveness but, if very large, may reflect weak domestic demand and create tensions with trading partners.
Links to other objectives
External balance does not stand alone. Fast growth tends to worsen the current account (more imports); a depreciation of the exchange rate tends to improve it over time (cheaper exports, dearer imports), subject to the Marshall-Lerner condition (that the combined elasticities of demand for exports and imports exceed one) and the J-curve effect (the balance worsens before it improves). Reducing a deficit by cutting demand can raise unemployment, while higher import prices from a depreciation can raise inflation. These trade-offs make the current account a recurring evaluation theme.
Examples in context
- The UK current account. A persistent deficit, with a goods deficit offset by a services (especially financial) surplus, financed by capital inflows.
- Germany and China. Large, persistent current-account surpluses reflecting strong export competitiveness, a source of global imbalances.
- Sterling depreciation. After the 2016 referendum, a weaker pound was expected to improve the current account over time, illustrating the J-curve and Marshall-Lerner ideas.
Try this
Q1. State the four components of the current account of the balance of payments. [4 marks]
- Cue. Trade in goods, trade in services, primary income (investment income), and secondary income (current transfers).
Q2. Explain one reason why a current-account deficit might not be a serious problem. [4 marks]
- Cue. It may finance investment (imported capital goods raising future growth), or be easily financed by capital inflows into an attractive economy, or self-correct via a depreciation.
Exam-style practice questions
Practice questions written in the style of WJEC Eduqas exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.
Eduqas Component 2 20214 marksAn economy exports billion of goods and services and imports billion, with net primary and secondary income of billion. Calculate the current-account balance and state whether it is a deficit or surplus.Show worked answer →
A short calculate question. The current-account balance is net trade plus net primary and secondary income.
Net trade: exports minus imports, billion (a trade deficit). Adding net income of billion gives a current-account balance of billion.
The balance is negative, so it is a current-account deficit of billion. Markers reward the net-trade figure, the addition of net income, and the correct identification of a deficit.
Eduqas Component 3 (macro) 202212 marksEvaluate the view that a persistent current-account deficit is always a serious problem for an economy.Show worked answer →
A levels-of-response essay. Knowledge and application: explain that a current-account deficit means the country spends more on imports and income outflows than it earns, financed by a surplus on the financial account (borrowing or selling assets to foreigners).
Analysis: develop why a large persistent deficit can be a problem: it may reflect poor competitiveness, must be financed by capital inflows or running down reserves, can lead to rising external debt and a falling exchange rate, and may be unsustainable.
Evaluation: weigh the counter-arguments: a deficit can reflect strong growth and investment (importing capital goods), can be financed easily if the country is attractive to investors, and may self-correct through the exchange rate (a depreciation improves competitiveness, subject to the Marshall-Lerner condition). Conclude with a supported judgement that it depends on the size, cause, persistence and how it is financed.
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Sources & how we know this
- Eduqas A Level Economics Specification (A520) — Eduqas (2015)