What explains how people vote, and how much does the media shape election outcomes?
Component 4.1 to 4.2: case studies of three key general elections, the factors explaining their outcomes (class, partisanship, age, gender, ethnicity, region, valence), and the role and impact of the media.
An Edexcel A-Level Politics Component 1 answer on voting behaviour and the media, covering case studies of three key general elections, the factors that explain outcomes including class and partisan dealignment, valence and demographic factors, and the role and impact of the media including opinion polls and bias.
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What this dot point is asking
Edexcel wants you to use case studies of three key general elections (one from 1945 to 1992, the 1997 election, and one since 1997) to explain why elections turn out as they do, drawing on class and partisan dealignment, valence factors, and demographic factors (age, gender, ethnicity, region), and to assess the role and impact of the media, including opinion polls and bias. This is examined through the 30-mark source and essay questions.
The factors that explain voting
The factors divide into long-term and short-term:
- Class. Once the strongest predictor (working class to Labour, middle class to Conservative), class voting has weakened sharply with dealignment, though it has not vanished.
- Partisanship. Fewer voters now have a strong, inherited party identity, increasing volatility.
- Age. A strong modern predictor: in recent elections younger voters have leaned Labour and older voters Conservative, with the "crossover age" rising.
- Gender, ethnicity and region. Ethnic-minority voters have leaned Labour; regional patterns are strong (Scotland for the SNP, parts of the south for the Conservatives); gender effects are smaller but present.
- Valence and the economy. Governing competency, leadership image and economic perceptions increasingly decide elections in a dealigned electorate.
- The campaign, manifestos and the media, the short-term triggers.
Three election case studies
Edexcel requires one election from 1945 to 1992, the 1997 election, and one since 1997. A clean set:
- 1979. The Conservatives under Thatcher defeated Labour amid the "Winter of Discontent" and economic crisis, illustrating valence (economic competence) and the start of class dealignment.
- 1997. New Labour under Blair won a landslide (a 179-seat majority) after rebranding as competent and moderate, with the Conservatives damaged by sleaze and the ERM crisis, the classic example of valence and leadership deciding an election.
- 2019. The Conservatives under Johnson won a large majority on "Get Brexit Done" and leadership contrast, with age a powerful predictor and the traditional "red wall" of Labour seats falling, showing dealignment and realignment.
The role and impact of the media
The media's influence is one of the most examined debates in Component 1.
The case that the media are powerful. The partisan press can reinforce loyalties and mobilise supporters (the Sun's "It's the Sun wot won it" claim after 1992); election campaigns and televised leaders' debates shape perceptions of competence; and opinion polls frame the contest and may influence turnout and tactical voting. Social media now allows targeted campaigning that can drive turnout among specific groups.
The case that the media are limited. The reinforcement theory holds that media mainly reinforce existing views rather than change them, because people choose outlets that match their beliefs; voters increasingly draw on diverse online sources beyond any single paper; and structural factors (the economy, leadership, dealignment) outweigh media effects. Polls also get it wrong (notably in 2015 and 1992), undermining the idea that they decide outcomes.
Examples in context
- 1992 ("It's the Sun wot won it"), the headline claim for press influence, and a useful case because the polls were wrong.
- 1997, the model example of valence and leadership deciding an election after dealignment.
- 2019, showing age as a strong predictor and the realignment of the "red wall".
- The 2015 polling failure, evidence that polls and media coverage do not straightforwardly determine outcomes.
Try this
Q1. Explain and analyse three factors, other than class, that influence voting behaviour. [9 marks]
- Cue. Age, valence (competence and leadership) and region, each developed with an election example.
Q2. Evaluate the view that long-term factors are no longer important in explaining UK voting behaviour. [30 marks]
- What the marker wants. A two-sided AO1 to AO3 essay weighing dealignment and valence against residual class, age, region and ethnicity, reaching a justified judgement.
Exam-style practice questions
Practice questions written in the style of Pearson Edexcel exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.
Edexcel 201920 marksEvaluate the view that valence factors are now the most important influence on voting behaviour in the UK. Reworded from a 30-mark essay to fit the schema; argue both sides and reach a judgement.Show worked answer →
A Section A 30-mark essay (shown as 20) on AO1, AO2 and AO3. Build two-sided arguments around competing models of voting.
For valence: with class and partisan dealignment, voters increasingly judge parties on competence (governing competency, leadership and the economy); the 1997 and 2019 results turned heavily on perceived competence and leadership.
Against (other factors): long-term factors still matter, including residual class voting, age (a strong predictor in recent elections, with younger voters favouring Labour), region, ethnicity and education, and partisanship has not vanished.
A Level 5 answer judges, for example, that valence is the single most important factor in an era of dealignment but operates alongside age and other demographic influences, then sustains the line.
Edexcel 202120 marksEvaluate the view that the media has a decisive influence on the outcome of UK general elections. Reworded from a 30-mark essay to fit the schema; argue both sides and reach a judgement.Show worked answer →
A 30-mark essay (shown as 20) on AO1, AO2 and AO3. Plan balanced arguments on media power.
Decisive: the partisan press can reinforce and mobilise (the Sun's claim to have "won it" in 1992), campaigns and televised debates shape perceptions, and opinion polls and social media frame the contest and can drive turnout.
Not decisive: the reinforcement theory holds that media mostly reinforce existing views rather than change them; voters increasingly get news from diverse online sources; and structural factors (the economy, leadership, dealignment) outweigh any single outlet.
A Level 5 answer judges that the media shape the agenda and reinforce more than they convert, so their influence is real but rarely decisive, supporting the line throughout.
Related dot points
- Component 1.1 to 1.2: representative and direct democracy, the widening of the franchise and debates over suffrage, the participation crisis and the case for reform.
An Edexcel A-Level Politics Component 1 answer on democracy and participation, covering the features of representative and direct democracy, the widening of the franchise from the 1832 Great Reform Act to the 1969 Representation of the People Act, the participation crisis and democratic deficit, and the case for reform.
- Component 2.1: the functions and features of political parties in the UK's representative democracy, how parties are funded and the debates over the consequences of the current funding system.
An Edexcel A-Level Politics Component 1 answer on political parties, covering the functions and features of parties in a representative democracy, how parties are currently funded through membership, donations and state funding, and the debates over whether the funding system should be reformed.
- Component 2.2 to 2.4: the origins and ideas of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties, minor parties, the development of a multi-party system and the factors that explain party success or failure.
An Edexcel A-Level Politics Component 1 answer on established and minor parties, covering the origins, development and current policies of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties, the rise of minor parties, the move toward a multi-party system, and the factors that explain why parties succeed or fail.
- Component 3.1: the features, advantages and disadvantages of FPTP, AMS, STV and SV, and the comparison of first-past-the-post with a proportional system used in a devolved body.
An Edexcel A-Level Politics Component 1 answer on electoral systems, covering how first-past-the-post, the Additional Member System, the Single Transferable Vote and the Supplementary Vote work, their advantages and disadvantages, and a comparison of FPTP with the proportional systems used in the devolved bodies.
- Component 3.2 to 3.3: how referendums have been used since 1997 and the case for and against them, and the analysis of why different electoral systems are used and their impact on government, party representation and voter choice.
An Edexcel A-Level Politics Component 1 answer on referendums and electoral system analysis, covering how referendums have been used in the UK since 1997, the case for and against them in a representative democracy, and how different electoral systems affect the type of government, party representation and voter choice.
Sources & how we know this
- Pearson Edexcel A-Level Politics (9PL0) specification — Pearson Edexcel (2017)