What factors explain how people vote and how influential is the media?
The factors that explain voting behaviour including class, age, ethnicity, region and rational choice, the use of case-study elections, and the influence of the media and opinion polls on elections.
A focused answer to AQA A-Level Politics on the factors that explain voting behaviour including class, age, ethnicity and rational choice, the use of case-study elections, and the influence of the media and opinion polls.
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What this dot point is asking
AQA wants you to explain the factors that influence how people vote, including social factors such as class, age, ethnicity and region and rational factors such as issues, leaders and the economy, apply these to case-study elections, and evaluate the influence of the media and opinion polls.
Social (long-term) factors
- Class: historically the working class backed Labour and the middle class the Conservatives, but class dealignment means this link has weakened sharply and no longer reliably predicts the vote.
- Age: now one of the strongest divides, with younger voters favouring Labour and older voters the Conservatives; in 2017 and 2019 age was a better predictor of vote than class.
- Ethnicity: minority ethnic voters have tended to favour Labour, though the relationship varies by community and is not uniform.
- Region: Labour is stronger in cities, the north of England and Wales; the Conservatives in the south and rural areas; the SNP dominates Scotland, illustrating how regional identity now cuts across class.
Rational (short-term) factors
You must support analysis with case-study elections. For example, 1979 (the Conservatives gaining on the economy and the "winter of discontent"), 1997 (New Labour winning on competence, leadership and a centrist programme), 2017 (a hung parliament with a strong age divide and a poor Conservative campaign), and 2019 (the Conservatives winning on "Get Brexit Done", leadership and valence). Strong answers show how several factors combined in one result rather than treating each in isolation.
The media and opinion polls
The media can shape politics through agenda-setting (deciding which issues are salient), framing and coverage of leaders, and newspaper endorsements such as The Sun in 1992 ("It's The Sun Wot Won It") and its switch to Labour in 1997. There are two rival theories: the reinforcement theory holds that the media mainly reinforces existing views and follows its readers, while the agenda-setting and manipulation view holds that the media can shape opinion. The independent causal power of the press is therefore contested. Opinion polls measure and may influence opinion (through bandwagon or boomerang effects and tactical voting), but high-profile failures in 1992 and 2015, when polls badly misjudged the result, show their limits. Social media has added micro-targeted campaigning, raising new questions about influence and regulation.
Exam-style practice questions
Practice questions written in the style of AQA exam questions on this dot point, with worked answer explainers. The year tag is the paper they imitate, not the source.
AQA 20199 marksExplain and analyse three factors that influence voting behaviour. (Paper 2, Section A, short-answer)Show worked answer →
Three distinct factors, each defined, illustrated and analysed.
One: social class. Historically working class backed Labour and middle class the Conservatives. Analyse that class dealignment has weakened this, so class now explains less than it once did.
Two: age. Younger voters now lean Labour, older voters Conservative. Analyse that age has become one of the strongest predictors, overtaking class in recent elections.
Three: valence and rational choice. Voters judge which party seems most competent (the economy, leaders, issues). Analyse that valence is now central and helps explain results such as 1997 and 2019.
Markers reward three clearly different factors, accurate detail (class and partisan dealignment), and analysis of their relative strength, ideally with a case-study election.
AQA 202120 marksEvaluate the view that the media has a decisive influence on UK election results. (Adapted from Paper 2, Section C essay; 25-mark essay rescoped to 20.)Show worked answer →
A balanced essay with a sustained judgement and developed arguments on both sides.
For decisive influence: agenda-setting frames which issues matter, coverage of leaders shapes images, newspaper endorsements (The Sun in 1992 and 1997) and the growth of targeted social media campaigning.
Against decisive influence: the press may follow readers rather than lead them (reinforcement theory), strong social and valence factors drive votes, and high-profile polling and prediction failures (1992, 2015) show the limits of media power.
Markers reward a clear line of argument, named elections and examples, weighing of the reinforcement and agenda-setting theories, and a justified conclusion. AO3 (evaluation) carries the most weight.
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Sources & how we know this
- AQA A-level Politics (7152) specification — AQA (2017)